Bitcoin 2016 Outlook

Since my last post, $BTC surged to $500, then had a dramatic dump to $300 before climbing back up to $400. In terms of the bigger picture, Bitcoin has broken the 18-month downtrend in October 2015 by surging above multi-month resistance at $300.

@jackfru1t #bitcoin monthly chart looks amazing. Probably be some correction soon, January maybe, before supermoon pic.twitter.com/WH09cP6DOp

— Jack Sparrow (@jackfru1t) December 17, 2015

I hope you're familiar with the crash cycle market structure by now, which I introduced in my 2014 post about market cycle, structure, and manipulation. Based on my interpretation of the crash cycle in Bitcoin, it would seem like we are nearing the end of the cycle, or beginning the new pump cycle. According to Jack, the price action we've seen in BTC over the past year or so places us somewhere at the 'disbelief' stage.

If $500 was the top of a successful test pump...we could be here. #bitcoin pic.twitter.com/sy08n8nUdS

— Jack Sparrow (@jackfru1t) November 5, 2015

Crash Cycle Comparison

If you've been following my blog and twitter account, you'll understand very well that market crash cycles can be found in every corner of the market. With the only similarity between all markets being the human beings behind the money (price), it would be sensible to think that the psychology & emotions behind these humans play a pivotal role in understanding markets and trading.

If we can break this market structure down into 4 easy-to-understand parts, we would come up with something like this:

1. Accumulation 
2. Launchpad 
3. Pump 
4. Dump 

Relating this to Bitcoin , it seems like the year long accumulation period is over, as $BTCUSD broke above major resistance $300 in October 2015. Based on this, I believe we have now moved into the launchpad phase with our current price action raging between $294 and $502.


If Bitcoin continues to be the leading blockchain network, it should become widely regarded and generally accepted as the base currency of other cryptocurrencies. My personal view is that Bitcoin and the blockchain are not going anywhere anytime soon.

In the shorter term, the bitcoin halving happening in Q3 2016 will set the stage for a pump, and for that to happen, MMs must maintain the uptrend structure formed since October 2015. Any breaks below structure will either delay the pump, or lead to another downtrend. Upside targets are $710, $995, and $1163. Downside is $341, $280, $220, $160.

Click here to get a closer look at the crash cycle comparison.

What's next? #Bitcoin | Wall Street Cheat Sheet 3.0 $btcusd pic.twitter.com/9nWXTasxVY

— fractalhedge (@fractalhedge) December 28, 2015

Will BTC/USD break ATH in 2016? #bitcoin

— Alvin Lee (@onemanatatime) January 8, 2016

After the dump from $500, the shockwave and general sideways in the 3-500 range gave time for traders to consolidate their crypto holdings and we have since seen funds flow into altcoins.

Alternative Cryptocurrencies - Are altcoins back?

Are Altcoins back or what? I suppose it pretty much depends on big daddy Bitcoin. #moonsoon pic.twitter.com/nEv75bIFox

— Alvin Lee (@onemanatatime) January 24, 2016

Notice that the altcoin charts in accumulation all look like Bitcoin from 2015 Jan to 2015 Oct. Now that's what I call a bullish chart! Coincidentally, notice that Bitcoin's pump above $300 in Oct'15 was the same time when many altcoins had their final dump and formed a low, before slowly moving up to break out in December/January and later.

2016 Pump Schedule Jan - FCT -> DASH -> ETH Feb - DOGE -> VRC -> VNL Mar - XEM -> XMR Apr - BTC May - Dump it. - MM pic.twitter.com/JT7c5t4Tde

— Alvin Lee (@onemanatatime) January 14, 2016

Here's a look at some charts of the alternative cryptocurrencies that are the leading the charge in this pump. I would consider these to be Tier-1 altcoins. Presenting: Dash, Factom, and king Ethereum.

Dashing $DASH charts. Feels like $BTC in Aug-Sep 2015. @22loops @pterion2910 pic.twitter.com/gKSwvel9FH

— Alvin Lee (@onemanatatime) December 25, 2015

Woah it's been 1 month since the $FCT pump started. Amazing work. @factomproject pic.twitter.com/vna6egY2X5

— Alvin Lee (@onemanatatime) January 24, 2016

MMs painting textbook crash cycle formations all over #altcoins. Pump mode much? $ETH #Ethereum @feudalmondays pic.twitter.com/Ip5hscB0nt

— Alvin Lee (@onemanatatime) January 13, 2016

And you should have noticed about 3 days ago that MMs decided to pump just about every coin out there:

It's easy when everything's just going up.. #altsareback pic.twitter.com/FkptScs4ti

— Alvin Lee (@onemanatatime) January 26, 2016

So here's a few other coins I thought are a good pick for the upcoming altcoin pump. I would consider these to be Tier-2 altcoins, based on technical factors such as trading volume and other fundamental factors like technology, innovation, developer, and community. These include: Monero (XMR), MaidSafe (MAID), VanillaCoin (VNL), and our old buddy DogeCoin (DOGE).

While everybody is busy looking at $ETH and $DASH, panic buy $XMR! @Poloniex pic.twitter.com/MoGAcFaXvg

— Alvin Lee (@onemanatatime) January 23, 2016

#Vanillacoin making moves and moving into Top 10 highest volume on @Poloniex. Got Bags? $VNL $XMR $MAID $DOGE $BLK pic.twitter.com/dEavq0n1J5

— Alvin Lee (@onemanatatime) January 25, 2016

Of all those charts out there, I'm liking $MAID's chances of blowing a 10x from here. 5k on the verge of breaking. pic.twitter.com/A8hIxIEMkp

— Alvin Lee (@onemanatatime) January 26, 2016

Other Tier-3 alternatives would include, DigiByte (DGB), BlackCoin (BLK), VeriCoin (VRC), as well as other "Crypto 2.0" alternatives such as New Economy Movement (XEM), NXT, Lumens (STR), Ripple (XRP), Counterparty (XCP), Bitshares (BTS).

With this, it seems like we're still on schedule for the pump leading up to the 2016 Halving in Q3, and it is likely we will see profits from the BTC pump flow into the altcoins. Did you notice that Altcoin volume has surged since October 2015, in the same way that Bitcoin volume has dramatically increased since August 2015? I'm picturing MMs and bulls beefing up their stacks, getting ready to slaughter the bears once and for all.

The altcoin market is very much different than how it was two years ago. There are now so many choices in the market, with all kinds of different innovations, it's hard to keep track anymore. There's hardly 10 coins that look like they can last another 5 years, while the rest are mostly junk clones with various marketing gimmicks, and I believe many of them will die out; those with little innovation will eventually be weeded out by the stronger coins such as Ethereum, and the market should normalize towards having only 1% of the altcoins dominating 99% of the market. And who knows what's to come in the coming years?

In line with the BTC halving in 2016 Q3, ZCash is launching and they're currently the strongest contender for leading the pump for the altcoin markets then, with many big names backing it. So stay tuned and keep a close eye on this one.

Zcash, an Untraceable Bitcoin Alternative, Launches in Alpha https://t.co/3zZ1jYTR56 #zcash #privacy @zooko pic.twitter.com/odVOf4fyFD

— Alvin Lee (@onemanatatime) January 22, 2016

My advice is to be versatile and stick to coins with good liquidity, and don't get yourself emotionally attached with any particular coins. Remember that at the end of the day, your goal is to grow your number of Bitcoins, or to increase the FIAT value of your portfolio. Markets, they go up, they go down, so always take profits and forget about the "what ifs". Good luck and may the force be with us.

P.S. Don't forget to sell at the end of the pump. Dump it. All of it.

Money Markets

I know the cryptocurrency markets have been going crazy the last couple of weeks/months, but let's not lose track of the money markets that are driving our current economic system. I'll just briefly touch on three major markets: Crude Oil, Gold, and the S&P 500 Index.

Oil has tumbled to a 12-year low of $28 a barrel on the 20th January 2016, amid tensions in the Middle East, and news of excessive supply. Someone said that this is good for the people because we'll have cheaper gas prices, but heck although oil prices have dropped almost 4-fold, my petrol prices here in Singapore are the still the same!


Gold rebounded strongly off $1050/oz, barely keeping structure above the critical psychological $1000 level.

@CryptOrca $GOLD Breakout from 1110 .... so far so good. pic.twitter.com/g76Uha1lFI

— CryptOrca (@CryptOrca) January 26, 2016

Will BTC/GOLD ever reach parity again? $btc $gld

— Alvin Lee (@onemanatatime) January 8, 2016

Since I last mentioned that $SPX was ready for a short back in early November 2015, it topped out at $2109.79 before sliding back down and breaking below the August 25th 2015 low of $1867.61 to form a new low at $1859.33 on January 20th 2016. Doesn't look too good on the $SPX, and this could spell the beginning of yet another major economic crisis.

Well.. you know. $SPX #lennyanalysis #TA pic.twitter.com/JqguHWWzpc

— Alvin Lee (@onemanatatime) January 14, 2016

$SPX longer term average sloping down has not been a good thing that last 2 times we've seen it #TA $spy @dogedradio pic.twitter.com/LSgGb6sPXT

— Kazonomics (@kazonomics) January 24, 2016

To end off, let me just leave you with this classic scenario:

Having a plan is one thing. Sticking to it is another. pic.twitter.com/e6cLoZLXCE

— Tom Dante (@Trader_Dante) January 15, 2016

Related Post: Uptrend Established Bullish Horizon for #Bitcoin: 2016 The "Pre-Halving" Pump (and Dump). $BTCUSD 

Related Post: $400 Bitcoin - Strong Bull Rally Final Target 600s. May the #crystalball be with us. 

Max Keiser talks about the Bitcoin revolution in his recent video from the Keiser Report. Love this guy and his segments are always very interesting. And in this episode, I thought it was noteworthy to mention two points he brought up.

Max Kaiser:

Is that too far-fetched? What do you think? Is the Bitcoin boom still at its infancy?

Can Bitcoin really gain enough value and stability to stand alongside Gold and Silver as hard assets?

What the video for yourself!

Tell me what you think in the comments section below! =)

Jeff Berwick is a Canadian entrepreneur, economics, finance, and investment writer, and libertarian and anarcho-capitalist activist. He believes that we are going through a significant market shift. He goes on to say that the excessive printing of money will lead to hyperinflation, and adds, this is exactly what the Federal Reserve is doing now. They have been printing 10% of the money every year, for the last 5 years. He believes that the economic (US dollar and Stock markets) collpase is imminent, and that we should look towards alternate forms of wealth such as Gold or Bitcoins.

Bitcoin, the first free-market non-localized private money, is seen as a great threat to the Government's monopoly of money. However, the recent economic collapses in smaller regions (think Cyprus), have spurred the rise of Bitcoin and its non-centrality as an alternative to the FIAT currency.

Or watch it on YouTube: US Dollar Collapse, Soon Won't Be Able to Buy Gold at Any Price -- Bitcoin - Galt's Gulch

Dan Popescu, a global markets strategist and gold expert, shares his thoughts about Gold and China. He talks about a 'black swan event' that is at our doorstep and how that can make the price of gold 'explode' in a day. Gold is important because it is a "hard currency" that has value, as opposed to the FIAT currency which is not backed by anything.

China is a major buyer of gold, and their strategy is to gather a large deposit of gold to be able to properly back up their currency, unlike any other currency now. If the Chinese can successfully back up their currency with gold, they will be able to give credibility to their currency.

The world is becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the current system. He believes, within the next 3 to 5 years, that "we'll have a currency crisis with a new international monetary system, and gold will defnitely be part of it." Gold will shoot up in a shock, surprise move, and he "won't be surprised" if gold goes above US$2000/oz within a year.

Or watch it on YouTube: Maybe the most important video you'll ever see on gold - Interview with Dan Popescu

Another video also highlights that 90% of market movement will come in the last 10% of time. Click here to watch the full video: Silver - 90% of the move comes in the last 10% of the time

Last video I want to share with you is from Ned Goodman. Ned is a Canadian billionaire with a unique perspective on the world economy. He starts off in the video by saying that "the dollar is about to be dethroned as the world's de facto currency".

He justifies his claim by explaining how the US dollar is backed by nothing, but still has a strong power in the world, because all oil in the middle east is traded with US dollars. That is how the dollar got to where it is today. However, China has recently made deals with Russia to buy oil in Chinese Yuan (RMB), opening the path to international partnership between these two big players. It was also obvious from the tension in Syria, that China and Russia are on the same side. We are heading into a period of "stag-flation" as the Federal Reserve loses its power to print money at will.

We buy things to protect our future purchase power. To continue doing so today, he emphasizes the need to start buying hard assets.

Or watch it on YouTube: Canadian billionaire predicts end of US Dollar as world's reserve currency - Ned Goodman lecture

For those of you who are still unsure about what FIAT currency means, or how the US dollar is not backed by anything, I'll end of with one of my favourite videos that very aptly answers these questions.

Or watch it on YouTube: When Will The Economy Collapse?

Thank you for reading, and I hope you gained some value from this post. Be safe and all the best!

Jim Rogers, touted as a legendary commodities investor, is an investor and author based in Singapore. In his recent interview on FOX Business, Rogers outlined several investment opportunities:

Source: Jim Rogers: If Gold Dips Below 1K, I'll Buy

In another video, Rogers talks about the artificial stimulus package introduced in the United States, and believes that America will "default (on its debts) one way or the other". When that happens, he believes that the Dollar will lose its place as the World currency.

Source: Jim Rogers Discusses Gold, Housing and China

In light of the recent US Government Shutdown on 1st October 2013, and upcoming Debt Ceiling talks, I have decided to stop my Forex Trading with the Leo EA. If you are currently trading in the Forex or Equity markets, please be safe! Nothing is for certain in this economy.

With that said, I will be looking to move my investments towards 3 main products:

Read more in my previous post: Danger looming for Equity & Forex Markets - GBPUSD at 8-month high

Will share my own thoughts and reasons for this decision over the next few posts. So stay tuned!

In the meantime, diversify your portfolio and do your research into what's going on in the world today.

The dollar plummeted against most major currencies on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve said it was making no changes to its USD85 billion monthly bond-buying program.

GBPUSD today is close to an 8-month high, after soaring more than 1.5% over the last 10 days. This poses a problem for Forex Software Traders, who depend on the small market fluctations in stable currencies for profits. Especially for Robots that use the Martingale (doubling) system, these uncertain times could spell disaster.

My personal view is that danger is looming; diversify your portfolio into safer investments, and possibly into Gold/Silver, Bitcoin, or Chinese Yuan (RMB). My best advise is to do your own research into these opportunities and examine if they fit your overall Investment Strategy, based on your Risk Preference.

Just a little background, I was using a Forex Automated Software to trade the GBP/USD pair since November 2012. In light of the Economic Instability due to recent World Events, I have since stopped. 

You can find out more about how the Forex Robot works at autoforexsg.wordpress.com. The Robot is still available for purchase, feel free to contact me if you have any questions at all. However, trade with caution!