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Bitcoin right on schedule for 2016 Halving Pump. Oh... and #altsareback

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Title : Bitcoin right on schedule for 2016 Halving Pump. Oh... and #altsareback
link : Bitcoin right on schedule for 2016 Halving Pump. Oh... and #altsareback

see also


accumulation

Bitcoin 2016 Outlook

Since my last post, $BTC surged to $500, then had a dramatic dump to $300 before climbing back up to $400. In terms of the bigger picture, Bitcoin has broken the 18-month downtrend in October 2015 by surging above multi-month resistance at $300.

I hope you're familiar with the crash cycle market structure by now, which I introduced in my 2014 post about market cycle, structure, and manipulation. Based on my interpretation of the crash cycle in Bitcoin, it would seem like we are nearing the end of the cycle, or beginning the new pump cycle. According to Jack, the price action we've seen in BTC over the past year or so places us somewhere at the 'disbelief' stage.

Crash Cycle Comparison

If you've been following my blog and twitter account, you'll understand very well that market crash cycles can be found in every corner of the market. With the only similarity between all markets being the human beings behind the money (price), it would be sensible to think that the psychology & emotions behind these humans play a pivotal role in understanding markets and trading.

If we can break this market structure down into 4 easy-to-understand parts, we would come up with something like this:

  1. Accumulation 
  2. Launchpad 
  3. Pump 
  4. Dump 

Relating this to Bitcoin , it seems like the year long accumulation period is over, as $BTCUSD broke above major resistance $300 in October 2015. Based on this, I believe we have now moved into the launchpad phase with our current price action raging between $294 and $502.

Tradingview: Bitcoin Market Crash Cycle Comparison - Launchpad

If Bitcoin continues to be the leading blockchain network, it should become widely regarded and generally accepted as the base currency of other cryptocurrencies. My personal view is that Bitcoin and the blockchain are not going anywhere anytime soon.

In the shorter term, the bitcoin halving happening in Q3 2016 will set the stage for a pump, and for that to happen, MMs must maintain the uptrend structure formed since October 2015. Any breaks below structure will either delay the pump, or lead to another downtrend. Upside targets are $710, $995, and $1163. Downside is $341, $280, $220, $160.

Click here to get a closer look at the crash cycle comparison.

After the dump from $500, the shockwave and general sideways in the 3-500 range gave time for traders to consolidate their crypto holdings and we have since seen funds flow into altcoins.

Alternative Cryptocurrencies - Are altcoins back?
Notice that the altcoin charts in accumulation all look like Bitcoin from 2015 Jan to 2015 Oct. Now that's what I call a bullish chart! Coincidentally, notice that Bitcoin's pump above $300 in Oct'15 was the same time when many altcoins had their final dump and formed a low, before slowly moving up to break out in December/January and later.


Here's a look at some charts of the alternative cryptocurrencies that are the leading the charge in this pump. I would consider these to be Tier-1 altcoins. Presenting: Dash, Factom, and king Ethereum.


And you should have noticed about 3 days ago that MMs decided to pump just about every coin out there:
So here's a few other coins I thought are a good pick for the upcoming altcoin pump. I would consider these to be Tier-2 altcoins, based on technical factors such as trading volume and other fundamental factors like technology, innovation, developer, and community. These include: Monero (XMR), MaidSafe (MAID), VanillaCoin (VNL), and our old buddy DogeCoin (DOGE).


Other Tier-3 alternatives would include, DigiByte (DGB), BlackCoin (BLK), VeriCoin (VRC), as well as other "Crypto 2.0" alternatives such as New Economy Movement (XEM), NXT, Lumens (STR), Ripple (XRP), Counterparty (XCP), Bitshares (BTS).

With this, it seems like we're still on schedule for the pump leading up to the 2016 Halving in Q3, and it is likely we will see profits from the BTC pump flow into the altcoins. Did you notice that Altcoin volume has surged since October 2015, in the same way that Bitcoin volume has dramatically increased since August 2015? I'm picturing MMs and bulls beefing up their stacks, getting ready to slaughter the bears once and for all.

The altcoin market is very much different than how it was two years ago. There are now so many choices in the market, with all kinds of different innovations, it's hard to keep track anymore. There's hardly 10 coins that look like they can last another 5 years, while the rest are mostly junk clones with various marketing gimmicks, and I believe many of them will die out; those with little innovation will eventually be weeded out by the stronger coins such as Ethereum, and the market should normalize towards having only 1% of the altcoins dominating 99% of the market. And who knows what's to come in the coming years?

In line with the BTC halving in 2016 Q3, ZCash is launching and they're currently the strongest contender for leading the pump for the altcoin markets then, with many big names backing it. So stay tuned and keep a close eye on this one.
My advice is to be versatile and stick to coins with good liquidity, and don't get yourself emotionally attached with any particular coins. Remember that at the end of the day, your goal is to grow your number of Bitcoins, or to increase the FIAT value of your portfolio. Markets, they go up, they go down, so always take profits and forget about the "what ifs". Good luck and may the force be with us.

P.S. Don't forget to sell at the end of the pump. Dump it. All of it.

Money Markets

I know the cryptocurrency markets have been going crazy the last couple of weeks/months, but let's not lose track of the money markets that are driving our current economic system. I'll just briefly touch on three major markets: Crude Oil, Gold, and the S&P 500 Index.

Oil has tumbled to a 12-year low of $28 a barrel on the 20th January 2016, amid tensions in the Middle East, and news of excessive supply. Someone said that this is good for the people because we'll have cheaper gas prices, but heck although oil prices have dropped almost 4-fold, my petrol prices here in Singapore are the still the same!


Gold rebounded strongly off $1050/oz, barely keeping structure above the critical psychological $1000 level.


Since I last mentioned that $SPX was ready for a short back in early November 2015, it topped out at $2109.79 before sliding back down and breaking below the August 25th 2015 low of $1867.61 to form a new low at $1859.33 on January 20th 2016. Doesn't look too good on the $SPX, and this could spell the beginning of yet another major economic crisis.

To end off, let me just leave you with this classic scenario:

Related Post: Uptrend Established Bullish Horizon for #Bitcoin: 2016 The "Pre-Halving" Pump (and Dump). $BTCUSD 

Related Post: $400 Bitcoin - Strong Bull Rally Final Target 600s. May the #crystalball be with us. 

Bitcoin 2016 Outlook

Since my last post, $BTC surged to $500, then had a dramatic dump to $300 before climbing back up to $400. In terms of the bigger picture, Bitcoin has broken the 18-month downtrend in October 2015 by surging above multi-month resistance at $300.

I hope you're familiar with the crash cycle market structure by now, which I introduced in my 2014 post about market cycle, structure, and manipulation. Based on my interpretation of the crash cycle in Bitcoin, it would seem like we are nearing the end of the cycle, or beginning the new pump cycle. According to Jack, the price action we've seen in BTC over the past year or so places us somewhere at the 'disbelief' stage.

Crash Cycle Comparison

If you've been following my blog and twitter account, you'll understand very well that market crash cycles can be found in every corner of the market. With the only similarity between all markets being the human beings behind the money (price), it would be sensible to think that the psychology & emotions behind these humans play a pivotal role in understanding markets and trading.

If we can break this market structure down into 4 easy-to-understand parts, we would come up with something like this:

  1. Accumulation 
  2. Launchpad 
  3. Pump 
  4. Dump 

Relating this to Bitcoin , it seems like the year long accumulation period is over, as $BTCUSD broke above major resistance $300 in October 2015. Based on this, I believe we have now moved into the launchpad phase with our current price action raging between $294 and $502.

Tradingview: Bitcoin Market Crash Cycle Comparison - Launchpad

If Bitcoin continues to be the leading blockchain network, it should become widely regarded and generally accepted as the base currency of other cryptocurrencies. My personal view is that Bitcoin and the blockchain are not going anywhere anytime soon.

In the shorter term, the bitcoin halving happening in Q3 2016 will set the stage for a pump, and for that to happen, MMs must maintain the uptrend structure formed since October 2015. Any breaks below structure will either delay the pump, or lead to another downtrend. Upside targets are $710, $995, and $1163. Downside is $341, $280, $220, $160.

Click here to get a closer look at the crash cycle comparison.

After the dump from $500, the shockwave and general sideways in the 3-500 range gave time for traders to consolidate their crypto holdings and we have since seen funds flow into altcoins.

Alternative Cryptocurrencies - Are altcoins back?
Notice that the altcoin charts in accumulation all look like Bitcoin from 2015 Jan to 2015 Oct. Now that's what I call a bullish chart! Coincidentally, notice that Bitcoin's pump above $300 in Oct'15 was the same time when many altcoins had their final dump and formed a low, before slowly moving up to break out in December/January and later.


Here's a look at some charts of the alternative cryptocurrencies that are the leading the charge in this pump. I would consider these to be Tier-1 altcoins. Presenting: Dash, Factom, and king Ethereum.


And you should have noticed about 3 days ago that MMs decided to pump just about every coin out there:
So here's a few other coins I thought are a good pick for the upcoming altcoin pump. I would consider these to be Tier-2 altcoins, based on technical factors such as trading volume and other fundamental factors like technology, innovation, developer, and community. These include: Monero (XMR), MaidSafe (MAID), VanillaCoin (VNL), and our old buddy DogeCoin (DOGE).


Other Tier-3 alternatives would include, DigiByte (DGB), BlackCoin (BLK), VeriCoin (VRC), as well as other "Crypto 2.0" alternatives such as New Economy Movement (XEM), NXT, Lumens (STR), Ripple (XRP), Counterparty (XCP), Bitshares (BTS).

With this, it seems like we're still on schedule for the pump leading up to the 2016 Halving in Q3, and it is likely we will see profits from the BTC pump flow into the altcoins. Did you notice that Altcoin volume has surged since October 2015, in the same way that Bitcoin volume has dramatically increased since August 2015? I'm picturing MMs and bulls beefing up their stacks, getting ready to slaughter the bears once and for all.

The altcoin market is very much different than how it was two years ago. There are now so many choices in the market, with all kinds of different innovations, it's hard to keep track anymore. There's hardly 10 coins that look like they can last another 5 years, while the rest are mostly junk clones with various marketing gimmicks, and I believe many of them will die out; those with little innovation will eventually be weeded out by the stronger coins such as Ethereum, and the market should normalize towards having only 1% of the altcoins dominating 99% of the market. And who knows what's to come in the coming years?

In line with the BTC halving in 2016 Q3, ZCash is launching and they're currently the strongest contender for leading the pump for the altcoin markets then, with many big names backing it. So stay tuned and keep a close eye on this one.
My advice is to be versatile and stick to coins with good liquidity, and don't get yourself emotionally attached with any particular coins. Remember that at the end of the day, your goal is to grow your number of Bitcoins, or to increase the FIAT value of your portfolio. Markets, they go up, they go down, so always take profits and forget about the "what ifs". Good luck and may the force be with us.

P.S. Don't forget to sell at the end of the pump. Dump it. All of it.

Money Markets

I know the cryptocurrency markets have been going crazy the last couple of weeks/months, but let's not lose track of the money markets that are driving our current economic system. I'll just briefly touch on three major markets: Crude Oil, Gold, and the S&P 500 Index.

Oil has tumbled to a 12-year low of $28 a barrel on the 20th January 2016, amid tensions in the Middle East, and news of excessive supply. Someone said that this is good for the people because we'll have cheaper gas prices, but heck although oil prices have dropped almost 4-fold, my petrol prices here in Singapore are the still the same!


Gold rebounded strongly off $1050/oz, barely keeping structure above the critical psychological $1000 level.


Since I last mentioned that $SPX was ready for a short back in early November 2015, it topped out at $2109.79 before sliding back down and breaking below the August 25th 2015 low of $1867.61 to form a new low at $1859.33 on January 20th 2016. Doesn't look too good on the $SPX, and this could spell the beginning of yet another major economic crisis.

To end off, let me just leave you with this classic scenario:

Related Post: Uptrend Established Bullish Horizon for #Bitcoin: 2016 The "Pre-Halving" Pump (and Dump). $BTCUSD 

Related Post: $400 Bitcoin - Strong Bull Rally Final Target 600s. May the #crystalball be with us. 

Uptrend Established Bullish Horizon for #Bitcoin: 2016 The "Pre-Halving" Pump (and Dump). $BTCUSD

accumulation - Hello friend Grow Your Bitcoin, Get Free BTC, In the article you read this time with the title accumulation, we have prepared well for this article you read and take of information therein. hopefully fill posts Artikel 1broker, Artikel accumulation, Artikel bit4x, Artikel Bitcoin, Artikel bitcoins, Artikel bitfinex, Artikel bitmex, Artikel bitstamp, Artikel BTC, Artikel btcusd, Artikel bull, Artikel bullish, Artikel chart, Artikel crash cycle, Artikel dump, Artikel gemini, Artikel market cycle, Artikel pump, Artikel trading, Artikel uptrend, we write this you can understand. Well, happy reading.

Title : Uptrend Established Bullish Horizon for #Bitcoin: 2016 The "Pre-Halving" Pump (and Dump). $BTCUSD
link : Uptrend Established Bullish Horizon for #Bitcoin: 2016 The "Pre-Halving" Pump (and Dump). $BTCUSD

see also


accumulation

Bitcoin 2015 Outlook - Pretext for the Pre-halving Pump


2015 bitcoin crash cycle last leg down accumulation
2015 Bitcoin Crash Cycle - Last Leg Down & Accumulation

Bitcoin made a low on 14th January 2015, and has broken its 18 month downward trendline around June/July 2015. This marks the beginning of a new uptrend as we head into 2016, with news outlets ready to paint a bullish picture as the market requires new buyers to get into pump mode.



2015 Bitcoin September Fibonacci Fan & Trendlines
2015 Bitcoin September Fibonacci Fan & Trendlines


$BTCUSD began rallying up since breaking out of the 240-243 range on 6th October 2015, accompanied by a sustained large surge in volume since the last recent low of 25th August 2015.





Accumulation has picked up pace since August 2015 and it looks like we're heading to retest $300 for the 4th time since the 2015 Low (Related: TradingView - 3rd time's the charm, right?).


2015 2014 bitcoin crash cycle outlook pump dump accumulation
2014-2015 Bitcoin Crash Cycle - Pump, Dump, Accumulation


$BTCUSD currently trading at $270/273. On Oct 6 it traded between $240 and $243 for less than a day before breaking up with good volume. If this breaks 300/318 convincingly, we could see a run up to 400-450. 300 is a key level of resistance which will in future act as strong support if we trade above $300. See the chart in greater detail on my tradingview post here.

On the downside, if we head to break $200 and retest $160, bullish scenario may be invalidated or delayed. 



Crash Cycle Comparison - An Uncanny Resemblance


Bitcoin $BTCUSD Crash Cycle Comparison - 2013 April aka Cyprus
Bitcoin $BTCUSD Crash Cycle Comparison - 2013 April aka Cyprus
2013 July Last Low
2013 July+ Accumulation

Bitcoin $BTCUSD Crash Cycle Comparison - 2013 Last Dump before the $1200 Pump
Bitcoin $BTCUSD Crash Cycle Comparison - 2013 Last Dump before the $1200 Pump

2013 October Last Dump before the Pump

Bitcoin $BTCUSD Crash Cycle Comparison - 2015 Last Low before the Pre-Halving Pump
Bitcoin $BTCUSD Crash Cycle Comparison - 2015 Last Low before the Pre-Halving Pump

2015 Jan Last Low
2015+ Accumulation



2013 vs 2015 Bitcoin Crash Cycle Comparison Launchpad
2013 vs 2015 Bitcoin Crash Cycle Comparison - Launchpad



Who knows what 2016 could bring? Not too sure, but I'm sure people will call it the "pre-halving" pump (and dump) anyway. What do you think? Are we ready for what's coming?

I'd love to hear what you think, so share your thoughts or questions in the comments section below!

For more questions such as how to buy bitcoin or what's the best exchange to use, send me a direct email by using the contact form at the bottom of this page.



References

Bitcoin 2015 Outlook - Pretext for the Pre-halving Pump


2015 bitcoin crash cycle last leg down accumulation
2015 Bitcoin Crash Cycle - Last Leg Down & Accumulation

Bitcoin made a low on 14th January 2015, and has broken its 18 month downward trendline around June/July 2015. This marks the beginning of a new uptrend as we head into 2016, with news outlets ready to paint a bullish picture as the market requires new buyers to get into pump mode.



2015 Bitcoin September Fibonacci Fan & Trendlines
2015 Bitcoin September Fibonacci Fan & Trendlines


$BTCUSD began rallying up since breaking out of the 240-243 range on 6th October 2015, accompanied by a sustained large surge in volume since the last recent low of 25th August 2015.





Accumulation has picked up pace since August 2015 and it looks like we're heading to retest $300 for the 4th time since the 2015 Low (Related: TradingView - 3rd time's the charm, right?).


2015 2014 bitcoin crash cycle outlook pump dump accumulation
2014-2015 Bitcoin Crash Cycle - Pump, Dump, Accumulation


$BTCUSD currently trading at $270/273. On Oct 6 it traded between $240 and $243 for less than a day before breaking up with good volume. If this breaks 300/318 convincingly, we could see a run up to 400-450. 300 is a key level of resistance which will in future act as strong support if we trade above $300. See the chart in greater detail on my tradingview post here.

On the downside, if we head to break $200 and retest $160, bullish scenario may be invalidated or delayed. 



Crash Cycle Comparison - An Uncanny Resemblance


Bitcoin $BTCUSD Crash Cycle Comparison - 2013 April aka Cyprus
Bitcoin $BTCUSD Crash Cycle Comparison - 2013 April aka Cyprus
2013 July Last Low
2013 July+ Accumulation

Bitcoin $BTCUSD Crash Cycle Comparison - 2013 Last Dump before the $1200 Pump
Bitcoin $BTCUSD Crash Cycle Comparison - 2013 Last Dump before the $1200 Pump

2013 October Last Dump before the Pump

Bitcoin $BTCUSD Crash Cycle Comparison - 2015 Last Low before the Pre-Halving Pump
Bitcoin $BTCUSD Crash Cycle Comparison - 2015 Last Low before the Pre-Halving Pump

2015 Jan Last Low
2015+ Accumulation



2013 vs 2015 Bitcoin Crash Cycle Comparison Launchpad
2013 vs 2015 Bitcoin Crash Cycle Comparison - Launchpad



Who knows what 2016 could bring? Not too sure, but I'm sure people will call it the "pre-halving" pump (and dump) anyway. What do you think? Are we ready for what's coming?

I'd love to hear what you think, so share your thoughts or questions in the comments section below!

For more questions such as how to buy bitcoin or what's the best exchange to use, send me a direct email by using the contact form at the bottom of this page.



References

Paradigm Shift: Technical Analysis in the Altcoins & Bitcoin Market, & Introduction to Market Cycle, Structure & Manipulation

accumulation - Hello friend Grow Your Bitcoin, Get Free BTC, In the article you read this time with the title accumulation, we have prepared well for this article you read and take of information therein. hopefully fill posts Artikel accumulation, Artikel altcoins, Artikel Bitcoin, Artikel daytrading, Artikel elliott wave theory, Artikel market maker, Artikel market manipulation, Artikel market mover, Artikel pump and dump, Artikel qtm, Artikel quantum holdings, Artikel TA, Artikel technical analysis, Artikel wall street, we write this you can understand. Well, happy reading.

Title : Paradigm Shift: Technical Analysis in the Altcoins & Bitcoin Market, & Introduction to Market Cycle, Structure & Manipulation
link : Paradigm Shift: Technical Analysis in the Altcoins & Bitcoin Market, & Introduction to Market Cycle, Structure & Manipulation

see also


accumulation

Remember this? I bet the first time you saw it in December you laughed this picture off, but it's okay so did I. And if this is the first time you're seeing this, don't dismiss it just yet!


Because, well, the harsh truth is that its all real. And this market cycle, believe it or not, is present in every market out there, including these Bitcoin & Altcoin markets.


If you haven't already, check out my previous posts earlier this year about trading Bitcoins and Altcoins, which highlight technical analysis basicsfundamental analysis frameworksmargin trading, and tips on developing a cryptocurrency trading strategy and TA. Here, I just want to point out the importance of understanding market structure, introduce you to market manipulation, and show you how technical analysis can be applied to your cryptocurrency trading.

As you read on, keep these following points in mind as these rules apply even more closely:
  • What goes up must come down
  • Buy on rumors, sell on news
  • All markets are linked to everything else


To take this one step further and understand the markets from an even wider perspective, the next thing to do is to put on your market manipulator hat. Check out these 2 really good resources covering this topic for a deeper understanding of what I'm trying to get at:


The whole point of learning about how market manipulators operate is not to actually manipulate the markets yourself or conduct pump and dumps, but to actually spot when others are trying to do so. This can help your trading strategy in various ways such as to:
  • Have a better understanding of the ebbs and flows of the market
  • Avoid getting caught in their squeezes
  • Identify a suspicious (potentially profitable) market
  • Know what the "smartest man in the room" is doing, and follow the "smart money"

From Wolong's ebook, he broke down the market cycle into 7 stages, namely:
  1. Position Building 
  2. Suppressing prices
  3. Test Pump
  4. Actual Pump
  5. Shakeouts
  6. Re-allocation and distribution
  7. Exiting - The Dump

If you compare the psychology chart above and the Pump & Dump cycle pointed out by Wolong, to the market structure chart below, you can see how they have very similar structures even though they use different terms to explain the phases.


    And from this market structure chart, you can see that the stages can be further simplified to 4 phases:
    1. Accumulation
    2. Markup (Pump)
    3. Distribution
    4. Decline (Dump)

    So why is this important, or how does it apply to the cryptocurrency markets? By understanding the market cycle chart, you will be able to better pick altcoins by spotting accumulation zones to join the breakout and profit, and to make your exit when you reach distribution zones. For example:


    Although many people disregard the profitability (or possibility) of using technical analysis to trade the Bitcoin and especially Altcoins markets, it is most definitely possible. I think the problem lies predominantly in the limitation that some of you have put on the term 'technical analysis'.

    Every piece of information on that chart you use is part of technical analysis; but the bigger question is how to make sense of it all. To better understand TA, we should think of the price charts as simply a graph of human behaviour.

    Although the tools to do so efficiently are sorely lacking at this point in time, here's just a few examples of TA used on Altcoins and Bitcoin.

    The first ever Technical Analysis chart applied to altcoins on Dogecoin, from way back in January 2014:

    Example of a markup on Blackcoin BC last month:

    How a Dump looks like and when you should exit:

    Bitcoin on a Logarithmic scale:


    Once you can wrap you head around the following facts, and combine them with what I have covered in the previous posts, you should be well on your way to developing a profitable cryptocurrency trading strategy. So here's a recap of the key takeaways:

    1) Markets are fundamentally fractal in nature; for every one up or down trend, you can zoom in/out too see the same wave cycles. Read more about Elliott Wave Theory here.



    2) Price charts are merely a graph of human behaviour. It doesn't matter if you're looking at a 3h chart or a 30m chart, they all tell the same story. Make sure to always compare two different time frames to better understand the macro and micro trend.


    3) All markets are linked to each other, and affect each other in a dynamic fashion to create one over-arching ecosystem. Don't forget those crash cycle charts I showed you at the beginning; they're everywhere.

    4) All markets are manipulated. Ride the waves and profit with the whales; don't fight the macro trend.




    With that, I'll just end off with a few words of wisdom.





    Remember this? I bet the first time you saw it in December you laughed this picture off, but it's okay so did I. And if this is the first time you're seeing this, don't dismiss it just yet!


    Because, well, the harsh truth is that its all real. And this market cycle, believe it or not, is present in every market out there, including these Bitcoin & Altcoin markets.


    If you haven't already, check out my previous posts earlier this year about trading Bitcoins and Altcoins, which highlight technical analysis basicsfundamental analysis frameworksmargin trading, and tips on developing a cryptocurrency trading strategy and TA. Here, I just want to point out the importance of understanding market structure, introduce you to market manipulation, and show you how technical analysis can be applied to your cryptocurrency trading.

    As you read on, keep these following points in mind as these rules apply even more closely:
    • What goes up must come down
    • Buy on rumors, sell on news
    • All markets are linked to everything else


    To take this one step further and understand the markets from an even wider perspective, the next thing to do is to put on your market manipulator hat. Check out these 2 really good resources covering this topic for a deeper understanding of what I'm trying to get at:


    The whole point of learning about how market manipulators operate is not to actually manipulate the markets yourself or conduct pump and dumps, but to actually spot when others are trying to do so. This can help your trading strategy in various ways such as to:
    • Have a better understanding of the ebbs and flows of the market
    • Avoid getting caught in their squeezes
    • Identify a suspicious (potentially profitable) market
    • Know what the "smartest man in the room" is doing, and follow the "smart money"

    From Wolong's ebook, he broke down the market cycle into 7 stages, namely:
    1. Position Building 
    2. Suppressing prices
    3. Test Pump
    4. Actual Pump
    5. Shakeouts
    6. Re-allocation and distribution
    7. Exiting - The Dump

    If you compare the psychology chart above and the Pump & Dump cycle pointed out by Wolong, to the market structure chart below, you can see how they have very similar structures even though they use different terms to explain the phases.


      And from this market structure chart, you can see that the stages can be further simplified to 4 phases:
      1. Accumulation
      2. Markup (Pump)
      3. Distribution
      4. Decline (Dump)

      So why is this important, or how does it apply to the cryptocurrency markets? By understanding the market cycle chart, you will be able to better pick altcoins by spotting accumulation zones to join the breakout and profit, and to make your exit when you reach distribution zones. For example:


      Although many people disregard the profitability (or possibility) of using technical analysis to trade the Bitcoin and especially Altcoins markets, it is most definitely possible. I think the problem lies predominantly in the limitation that some of you have put on the term 'technical analysis'.

      Every piece of information on that chart you use is part of technical analysis; but the bigger question is how to make sense of it all. To better understand TA, we should think of the price charts as simply a graph of human behaviour.

      Although the tools to do so efficiently are sorely lacking at this point in time, here's just a few examples of TA used on Altcoins and Bitcoin.

      The first ever Technical Analysis chart applied to altcoins on Dogecoin, from way back in January 2014:

      Example of a markup on Blackcoin BC last month:

      How a Dump looks like and when you should exit:

      Bitcoin on a Logarithmic scale:


      Once you can wrap you head around the following facts, and combine them with what I have covered in the previous posts, you should be well on your way to developing a profitable cryptocurrency trading strategy. So here's a recap of the key takeaways:

      1) Markets are fundamentally fractal in nature; for every one up or down trend, you can zoom in/out too see the same wave cycles. Read more about Elliott Wave Theory here.



      2) Price charts are merely a graph of human behaviour. It doesn't matter if you're looking at a 3h chart or a 30m chart, they all tell the same story. Make sure to always compare two different time frames to better understand the macro and micro trend.


      3) All markets are linked to each other, and affect each other in a dynamic fashion to create one over-arching ecosystem. Don't forget those crash cycle charts I showed you at the beginning; they're everywhere.

      4) All markets are manipulated. Ride the waves and profit with the whales; don't fight the macro trend.




      With that, I'll just end off with a few words of wisdom.